HPS³ - Irene Menéndez - Electoral Rules, National Identity and Trade Protection

The seminar will be held in English.

The Hamburg Political Science Seminar Series (HPS³) features international speakers presenting cutting-edge research in all subfields of political science and political economy.

We welcome on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 - 17:15-18:45 CET in VMP9 B130:

Irene Menéndez Gonzales (IE University)

Title: "Electoral Rules, National Identity and Trade Protection", by Michael Becher and Irene Menéndez González (IE University)

Abstract: The recent surge of protectionism, notably in the United States, raises new questions about the effect of domestic political institutions on policy responses. We investigate how electoral institutions and social identity interact to shape trade protection. We analyze a theoretical model of political competition over trade policy under alternative electoral institutions. Going beyond existing institutional theories, our model highlights that more proportional electoral rules can increase trade protection in response to the increasing salience of national identity. We empirically test this novel prediction using a difference-in-difference analysis of roll-call votes in the Swiss parliament, exploiting within-country variation in district magnitude. Leveraging the onset of trade wars abroad and within-country variation in district magnitude, we find that legislative support for trade protection, following tariff increases under the first Trump presidency, rose more in districts with larger district magnitude. Our results link the literature on globalization backlash, social identity, and electoral institutions in new ways.

Keywords: Political economy, trade protection, national identity, electoral system.

The HPS³ seminars take place in person at the UHH. Please find the preliminary program (pdf) on the HPS³ Website.

We invite everyone interested to attend the HPS Seminar Series and are looking forward to seeing you.