HPS³ - Tobias Widmann - Moral Rhetoric and Electoral Success: Evidence from Seventy Years of Personal Voting in Germany

The Hamburg Political Science Seminar Series (HPS³) features international speakers presenting cutting-edge research in empirical political science and political economy.

We welcome on Wednesday, January 07, 2026 - 17:15-18:45 CET in VMP9 B130

Tobias Widmann (Aarhus University)

Title: Moral Rhetoric and Electoral Success:  Evidence from Seventy Years of Personal Voting in Germany

Abstract: 

Moral rhetoric—appeals to fundamental beliefs about right and wrong—is a powerful tool for mobilizing and persuading voters. Yet, who benefits from such rhetoric remains unclear. We argue that negative moral rhetoric is particularly advantageous for politicians stereotyped as less established in the political field. These “space invaders” can use it to credibly signal moral character and bypass traditional dimensions of competition. To test our argument, we combine observational and experimental evidence. Using a fine-tuned transformer model and a longitudinal dataset of parliamentary speeches and personal votes for the German Bundestag, we show that negative moral rhetoric is linked to electoral gains, but only for space invaders, while positive moral appeals are ineffective. A large-N conjoint experiment corroborates these findings. These results reveal voters’ differential treatment of politicians. More fundamentally, by exposing the electoral incentives of different rhetorical strategies, they contribute to understanding the diffusion of negative moralization with consequences for democratic debate.

The HPS³ seminars take place in person at the UHH. Please find the preliminary program on the HPS³ Website.

We invite everyone interested to attend the HPS Seminar Series and are looking forward to seeing you.