Photo: AdobeStock/M. Claushallmann

This year, the Olympic and Paralympic Games were held in Cortina d’Ampezzo. A majority of Hamburg residents oppose the city’s bid.

In May 2026, a total of 57 percent of respondents said they intended to vote against the referendum, while approximately 30 percent were in favor and 13 percent were still undecided. In a previous survey conducted in February and March, the results had been much more evenly split: approximately 33 percent of respondents were against a bid, 24 percent were in favor, and 43 percent were undecided. In the first round of the two-part online survey, conducted by the Department of Social Sciences at the University of Hamburg, 563 eligible voters residing in Hamburg participated. In the second wave in May 2026, 371 of the 563 individuals were surveyed again.

To achieve a sufficiently high sample size within the geographically limited survey area, the quota sampling typically used in online surveys was not employed. Instead, the data was weighted based on official statistics regarding Hamburg’s resident population by gender, age, and education to ensure the most representative possible reflection of the voting-eligible population.

The survey reveals a trend over the course of the campaign. “Since the first survey, significantly more of those who were previously undecided have come out against an Olympic bid than in favor of it, while only a few respondents who had already expressed an intention in February changed their minds. In the second wave, an absolute majority of respondents now oppose it,” says Nelly Buntfuß, research associate at the professorship for Political Science, specializing in methods.

The research team led by Buntfuß and Leininger also asked the panel participants about their views on the potential advantages and disadvantages of hosting the Olympic Games in Hamburg. Support for the referendum is primarily linked to the expected economic benefits and infrastructure improvements in the city, as well as a potential boost to the city’s image.

On the other hand, concerns regarding negative impacts on quality of life as well as environmental and safety risks contribute to the rejection. The latter, however, play a significantly smaller role than the cost issue, which is decisive for many “no” votes: “It is primarily economic factors that respondents consider particularly important—both in favor of and against the bid,” says project leader Arndt Leininger, professor of Political Science at the University of Hamburg.

According to the survey analysis, other factors such as sociodemographic characteristics or political party affiliation have little influence on opinion formation. Supporters of parties in favor (SPD, Die Grünen, and CDU) and parties opposed (Die Linke and AfD) do not differ in their opinions from one another or from respondents without party affiliations.

The survey on the Hamburg Olympic referendum is part of the research project “Polarization in and through Referendums,” which is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) as part of the Emmy Noether Programme. The project investigates whether and how referendums reinforce existing social divisions or create new ones. The focus is not only on citizens’ substantive positions regarding referendums but also on the question of potential affective polarization. This refers to a social process in which opposing political sides view one another with hostility not only on substantive grounds but increasingly on emotional grounds as well.

Looking at the current survey, it is evident that nearly 80 percent of respondents identify with one of the two camps, and the levels of support for their own group are significantly higher than for the opposing side—a finding that points to affective polarization not only between parties but also around specific issues.

The survey results are available online (PDF). Prof. Arndt Leininger is available for media inquiries regarding the survey results and the referendum.

(This content has been translated automatically.)