Description
RECONN research attempts to understanding the impacts of climatic processes such as match-mismatch on the trophodynamic structure and function of the North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystems by:
- Performing retrospective analyses of long-term changes and geographic patterns of species and their dynamics (e.g. vital rates)
- Conducting experimental studies on the physiological responses of (and interactions among) key trophic players to changes in climatic forcing
- Building and utilizing a hierarchy of coupled 3-D hydrodynamic, ecosystem, population and IBM models, to investigate trophodynamic consequences of potential environmental changes
These three activities focus on all life stages of key trophic players at the secondary (calanoid copepods) and tertiary (sprat, Sprattus sprattus) levels of production. The dynamics of the calanoid copepod community dictate, to a large extent, the dynamics of trophodynamic energy flow between primary and tertiary levels of production within most marine systems. Calanoids within genera such as Acartia, Temora and Pseudocalanus are numerically dominant members of the marine copepod community and have thus been chosen as target organisms for activities.
Many small pelagic fishes such as sprat are key wasp-waist species, important to both bottom-up and top-down control in marine and estuarine systems. Population sizes of sprat are dynamic and appear to fluctuate in response to climate (which includes climatic regime shifts). Therefore, sprat was chosen as a target species for our activities. Our study is similar to others (both terrestrial and aquatic) that, with a few exceptions, focus on individual key species responses to climate change. However, this approach neglects inter-specific interactions and community- or ecosystem-level responses. To avoid this pitfall and encompass a more holistic view of potential match-mismatch dynamics, our RECONN research employs state of the art 3-D modelling approaches sensitive to the effects of changes in both physical (e.g., temperature and stratification) and biological (e.g., bottom-up and top-down) processes acting to structure marine ecosystems. These modelling activities can then develop statistical relationships on the dynamics of not only key species but also their associated ecosystems.
A hierarchy of models is employed since it is clear that no single modelling approach, or even single model, can include all relevant processes (and temporal and spatial scales) required to resolve the effects of climatic impacts on changes in ecosystem structure and function. The integration of these approaches will allow the prediction of future impacts of climate change and potential feedbacks to ocean ecosystem dynamics. |
