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A central research question of the BO group is how variability in vital rates of key species is related to variability in oceanographic (hydrographic) features such as spatial and temporal changes in the strength of frontal systems. A specific task is to resolve the influence of intra- and interannual variability in physical forcing on the dynamics of phytoplankton and zooplankton populations and the impact that variations in these planktonic organisms have on higher trophic levels. This "bottom-up" approach entails identifying the how physical oceanographic processes modified by climate influence the growth, condition, and survival of marine organisms.
The group is particularly interested in how bottom-up processes impact marine zooplankton and early life history stages (eggs and larvae) of marine fishes since subtle changes in mortality rates acting during these early life history stages can have marked consequences on the abundance of later life stages (i.e., successfully recruited fish) and standing stocks of zooplankton. Survival throughout early developmental stages in the plankton results from a suite of simultaneously acting processes. Some of these processes are predictable, others are stochastic. We employ simulation techniques such as coupled 2-D and 3-D biophysical models to disentangle interactions among co-occurring biological and physical steering mechanisms and to identify synergistic or counter-acting forces. The modeling approach helps to understand the causal mechanisms behind variations in species abundance and dominance.
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