ATLANTIS
(Atlantic Sea Level Rise:
Adaptation to Imaginable Worst Case Climate Change)
This could be the
map of England and Wales.
It
would be with 6 metres of sea level rise.
The
ATLANTIS project, financially supported by the European Union’s DG Research,
investigates the implications of a 5-6 metres sea level rise, due to a collapse of the
West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, on the Rhone Delta, the Netherlands, and the Thames Estuary. This is one of
the first studies to assess the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation
to “imaginable worst case” climate change scenarios.
Because of the large
uncertainties in the sea level rise scenario, and the even greater
uncertainties in the social structure and land use in southeast France, the
Netherlands and southwest England in the distant future, the project used only
rough estimates of the changes in the natural system. We preferred to avoid
developing precise models, as precision would be easily mistaken for accuracy,
as any model would be used far outside its domain of calibration and
validation. Instead, the project developed dense scenarios (storylines, or
future histories) that are largely qualitative in nature, but do reflect, in an
internally consistent manner, the complex implications of, say, having to
abandon Marseille, Amsterdam or London. The project thus focused on what a 5-6
metre sea level rise would “mean” to people rather than on the “facts”. The
scenarios were developed in a series of interviews and workshops with
stakeholders.
In addition to the three
case scenarios, a formal risk assessment was carried out, a social values and
representations approach was enunciated, and the theory of optimal control
under catastrophes was applied.
Preliminary results are now
available.
Stakeholder
interaction methodology (F.L. Toth and E. Hizsnyik)
Two
pilot designs for the stakeholder workshops (F.L. Toth and E. Hizsnyik)
Managing
the inconceivable: Participatory assessments of impacts and responses to
extreme climate change (F.L. Toth and E. Hizsnyik)
Assessing
the risk of a future large sea level rise (R.E. Kasperson, M.T. Bohn and R.
Goble)
Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the
Thames Estuary under imaginable worst case sea-level rise scenarios (R.J.
Dawson, J.W. Hall, P.D. Bates and R.J. Nicholls)
Global
estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (R.J.
Nicholls, R.S.J. Tol and A.T. Vafeidis)
Decision
making under catastrophic risk and learning: The case of the possible collapse
of the West Antarctic ice sheet (M.-L. Guillerminet and R.S.J. Tol)
Adapting
to five metres of sea level rise (R.S.J. Tol and the ATLANTIS team)
Worst
Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in the
Rhone Delta, France (M. Poumadere,
C. Mays, G. Pfeifle and A.T. Vafeidis)
Changement climatique,
augmentation du niveau de la mer et (ré)action des parties prenantes : Étude de
cas à l'aide d'un scénario catastrophe en Camargue (G. Pfeifle, C. Mays and
M. Poumadere)
Facing
the dangers of climate change: A sea level rise scenario and case study in
France (M. Poumadere, C. Mays, G. Pfeifle and A.T. Vafeidis)
Neo-Atlantis:
Dutch responses to five metre sea level rise (A.A. Olsthoorn, P.E. van der
Werff, L.M. Bouwer and D. Huitema)
A
dialogue on responses to an extreme sea level rise scenario in the Thames
Region, England (K. Lonsdale, T.E. Downing, R.J. Nicholls, A.T. Vafeidis, R.J.
Dawson and J.W. Hall)
Results
from a dialogue on responses to an extreme sea level rise scenario in the
Thames Region, England (K. Lonsdale, T.E. Downing, R.J. Nicholls, A.T.
Vafeidis, D. Parker, R.J. Dawson and J.W. Hall)
Tidal
flood risk in London under stabilisation scenarios (J.W. Hall, T. Reeder,
G. Fu, R.J. Nicholls, J. Wicks, J. Lawry,
R.J. Dawson and D. Parker)
See also the stories in the Guardian,
the Hamburger
Abendblatt and Science
The project team consists of
the following people:
|
Name |
Institute |
Task |
|
Richard Tol, Marie-Laure
Guillerminet, Hakan Yetkiner |
Centre for Marine and
Climate Research, Hamburg University |
Project coordination,
decision analysis under catastrophic risk |
|
Robert Nicholls,
Nassos Vafeidis |
Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex
University, London |
Physical impact estimates |
|
Ferenc Toth, Eva Hizsnyik |
International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg |
Stakeholder interactions |
|
Roger Kaspersen, Maria
Bohn |
Risk analysis |
|
|
Xander Olsthoorn,
Peter van der Werff |
Institute for Environmental
Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam |
Netherlands case study |
|
Claire
Mays, Marc Poumadere, Gabriela Pfeifle |
Symlog Institute, Cachan |
|
|
Tom Downing, Kate Lonsdale |
Thames estuary case study |
Seven meetings will be organised
in the course of the project, three within the project team, one in each case
study, and one to disseminate our findings.
The first meeting took place in Hamburg, January
23-24, 2003.
The second meeting took place
in London, June 12-13, 2003.
The third meeting took place
in Amsterdam, May 13-14, 2004.